UK Cardboard Prices: A 12-Month Market Outlook

Market Overview

Over the past 12 months, UK cardboard prices have experienced a clear cycle of market correction followed by stabilisation. Benchmarking against corrugated cardboard producer price indices, prices peaked in late 2024 at approximately £750–£820 per tonne, depending on grade, contract structure and volume commitments.

This peak reflected elevated energy costs, sustained demand across key end-use sectors and continued logistical pressures.

Price Correction in H1 2025

During the first half of 2025, UK cardboard prices softened as several cost pressures began to ease. Lower energy prices, improved logistics performance and inventory adjustments across multiple industries contributed to a more competitive buying environment.

By mid-2025:

• Average market prices declined by approximately 8–12%

• Typical transactions were concluded in the range of £670–£730 per tonne

This period represented the most competitive procurement environment of the year, particularly for buyers with flexible contract structures.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Despite ongoing demand from e-commerce and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sectors, supplier pricing power was constrained by increased recycling availability and sufficient production capacity.

As a result:

• Supplier leverage in price negotiations weakened

• Buyer negotiating positions improved

• Competitive sourcing strategies became more effective across several grades

These dynamics supported more favourable commercial conditions for procurement teams.

Market Recovery from Late 2025

From the end of summer 2025, the market began to show early signs of recovery. By early 2026, UK cardboard prices had rebounded to approximately £700–£760 per tonne.

This recovery has been supported by:

• Firmer demand for fibre-based packaging

• Persistent labour and transport costs

• Structural impacts of sustainability-driven regulation, including Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR)

These factors continue to underpin long-term demand for cardboard packaging as a preferred sustainable material.

12-Month Outlook for the UK Cardboard Market

Looking ahead, the UK cardboard market is expected to remain relatively stable, albeit structurally supported.

While sharp price spikes appear unlikely in the short term, several risk factors remain relevant:

• Exposure to energy market volatility

• Global pulp price movements

• Geopolitical and macroeconomic risks

As a result, some level of price volatility cannot be ruled out.

Implications for Procurement Teams

For procurement and sourcing teams, the current environment reinforces the importance of a strategic approach to cardboard purchasing, including:

• Use of indexed pricing mechanisms

• Supplier diversification to mitigate supply risk

• Proactive contract management to control costs

• Supply chain resilience planning through 2026

In a more balanced pricing environment, the ability to anticipate market movements remains a key competitive advantage.